Three GOP Strategists Explain Why Aftyn Behn Lost — And What It Means For 2026

 Republicans took a victory lap when Matt Van Epps defeated leftist Democrat Aftyn Behn in Tennessee’s special election this month.

But what, if anything, does Van Epps’s victory mean for Republican prospects as we head into the 2026 midterm elections?

The Daily Wire asked three Republican strategists to share their key takeaways from this race. All three said that Democrats run the risk of killing any momentum they have if they nominate far-left candidates in primaries for competitive seats.

“For all the handwringing about margin of victory, this was nearly a double digit win. Special elections are special for a reason, and Republicans were wise to leave nothing to chance and sprint through the tape,” South & Hill Strategies co-founder Colin Reed said, calling Van Epps the “type of candidate the GOP needs more of.”

“There are some useful lessons looking forward for both parties: for the GOP, the midterm political climate remains challenging, as it always does for the party in charge, and for the Democrats, they need to nominate less extreme candidates if they want to compete beyond the deep blue bastions of America,” he said.

“That’s a challenge for them because the far Left is where all the energy and enthusiasm resides.”

 

The results of the 2026 midterms will shape the final two years of President Donald Trump’s time in the White House. Currently, there are 220 Republicans and 213 Democrats in the House of Representatives, with two seats that are vacant. The magic number for a majority is 218, which both parties are vying for both on the campaign trail and in mid-decade redistricting battles.

Van Epps won with roughly 54% of the vote, leaving Behn with just over 45%. In 2024, Rep. Mark Green, who resigned earlier this year, won the seat with 59.5% of the vote, with President Donald Trump also winning heavily. Van Epps was sworn in on Thursday.

The race led to surrogates campaigning left and right, from President Donald Trump phoning into a rally with Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), to former Vice Presidents Kamala Harris and Al Gore hoping to rally the troops for Behn.

Despite her loss, Behn expressed confidence about the margin by which she lost, as she ran her campaign largely on affordability, but faced a wave of scrutiny for her past far-left comments on abolishing prisons, law enforcement, and abortion.

“Tonight, we did something everyone counted out. We proved to a nation that states like Tennessee are still worth fighting for,” Behn posted to X on Tuesday. “The margin was close, and that can only be attributed to the thousands of volunteers who showed out. This is just the beginning.”

Chris Burger, founder and CEO of the Tennessee-based Rotunda Public Affairs, said that “voters weren’t buying what she’s selling.” Burger pointed out how the Democrat was in a primary with three others: Darden Copeland and state Reps. Bo Mitchell and Vincent Dixie.

“This is what happens when you have four people in a Democratic primary, and they elect by a pretty close margin, the most extreme left-wing person in the race, and then all the far-left activists and the national media complex come together,” he added.

“They put all their attention and money into it, and they threw the kitchen sink at it. And you know, Aftyn’s a far-left socialist and she does not represent the Seventh District or Tennessee values at large,” he said.

A third GOP operative, who spoke with The Daily Wire on background, said that they are “very encouraged” by Tuesday night’s results, and said that “a nine-point margin is really strong compared to what we’re seeing in other elections this cycle.”

However, the operative cautioned that special elections are just that — special — and that turnout likely looks very different from that during a standard election. The operative also pointed out the major messaging pivot by Democrats between the start of the year and now, which went from focusing highly on Elon Musk and the Department of Government Efficiency to discussing the cost-of-living.

“Affordability, they call it, was a con job by the Democrats,” Trump said during his cabinet meeting earlier this week, as he often blames Democrats and the Biden administration for policies that triggered high inflation.

Burger said that the affordability argument from Democrats like Behn falls flat on its merits when people consider the “policy objective” the candidates are campaigning for.

“If you look at what the Democrats want to do: government involvement. And government involvement typically always drives the price up.